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Theory of Change
How SIA’s work leads to change: who we reach, what we do with them, and how we know it worked.
Changemakers move through five stages: Ideate, Incubate, Accelerate, Invest and Alumni for Life. Each stage builds capability, capital or connections.
Results are measured at four levels: Learning (skills and behaviour), Enterprise (survival, revenue, jobs), Capital & ecosystem (capital mobilised, SENPak members, export revenue) and Systems (policies influenced, replications of the SIA Method).
See the results so far
The Live Impact Dashboard shows each headline figure with its definition and source.
The starting point
The problem we work on
Women and young people in Balochistan and other frontier regions have ideas and skills, and many already run small businesses. What they often lack is support close to home: training in their own language, someone to test an idea with, a first grant, a buyer, an investor who will take the time.
Distance and security make it hard for most programmes to reach them. That is why SIA works hub-and-spoke: hubs in Quetta and Loralai, and local facilitators who carry the programmes into other districts. CONFIRM: the districts reached through facilitators (for example Khuzdar).
In short
- Change starts in communities, with problems people live with.
- We design first for women, youth and frontier communities.
- We reach them through hubs, local facilitators, WhatsApp and voice notes.
If we do this
Six links in the chain
Each stage leads to the next. Someone who is not ready for a stage is routed back to the one that fits, so nobody hits a dead end.
- 1Reach people where they areHubs in Quetta and Loralai, local facilitators across Balochistan, applications in Urdu or English, online, on WhatsApp or by voice note.
- 2Build skills and confidenceEntrepreneurship training, the Business Model Canvas and the SIA Method, so an idea becomes a plan someone can test.
- 3Back early venturesA 100-day sprint in one of four sector tracks, mentoring and a seed grant of PKR 100k–500k.
- 4Open markets and capitalA 12-week growth programme, buyers at home and in Saudi Arabia, then blended finance from the Catalyst Fund and Pakistan Angels.
- 5Keep people connectedAlumni for Life and SENPak keep founders in touch with peers, buyers, mentors and each other.
- 6Change the wider systemThe Government Innovation Lab, a social enterprise policy agenda and published research help more support reach more people.
Then we expect to see
Change at four levels
These four levels come from SIA’s monitoring, evaluation and learning framework. Every figure we publish belongs to one of them.
Learning
Course completion, skills gained and behaviour change six months later.
Enterprise
Whether ventures survive, how their revenue grows and how many jobs they support.
Capital & ecosystem
Capital mobilised, SENPak members and export revenue.
Systems
Policies influenced and replications of the SIA Method by others.
Assumptions
What the theory depends on
What has to hold true
- People can reach a hub or a local facilitator, or learn online when the Digital Campus opens.
- Women can take part safely, with travel and childcare arrangements where a cohort needs them.
- There are buyers for what ventures make, in Pakistan and in the Gulf.
- Funders and investors are willing to offer patient, blended capital.
- Government departments are open to testing new ways of working.
CONFIRM: check these assumptions against the Theory of Change in the Strategic Plan.
How we check them
SIA’s monitoring, and the mid-term and end-line evaluations of its programmes, show what worked and what did not. Read how we measure.
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